2018 May Board Book

International Update

• Though the US market remains uneasy about US trade policy and its impact on dairy commerce— especially with Mexico—volume continues to move across the border. US NDM/SMP exports reached 146 million pounds in February, up 34% from January and 27% from a year ago. And, accelerating volume to Mexico led the way, with 58 million pounds moving south, the most since May 2017. Ongoing trade with Mexico should not overshadow the strides US exporters are making in Asia. Shipments into Indonesia, for instance, totaled 14 million pounds in February, up 8 million (138%) from 2017. • US cheese exports jumped to 62 million pounds in February, rising 4% from January and 7% from February 2017. Mexico remains the largest buyer of US cheese accounting for 25% of exports (18 million pounds) in February, but sales into South Korea and Japan are following closely behind with 24% share (15 million pounds). Year-to-date total US cheese exports reached 122 million pounds, up 12% from 2017. • February butter exports climbed above 4 million pounds, increasing 8% from January and 52% from February 2017. But net trade remains negative with nearly 6 million pounds imported. (Blimling)

Source: Blimling, YTD Feb ‘18

Mexico According to OECD estimates, the Mexican economy will grow 2.5% by the end of the year, which is 0.2% up from its former growth estimate of 2.3%. Also, for 2019 GDP is expected to grow 2.8%. For Jose Angel Gurria, OECD's general secretary, the global economy is en route to present its greater growth in 7 years in 2018, with trade tensions being one of the main reasons that could weigh on the outlook.